Odaily Planet Daily reports that Federal Reserve researchers have published a new paper highly praising the role of prediction markets in economic analysis, specifically highlighting the performance of the prediction platform Kalshi.
The report states that Kalshi’s forecasts for the federal funds rate and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) outperform traditional federal funds futures and professional economists’ predictions in terms of statistical accuracy, and can provide continuous updated full probability distributions rather than traditional discrete point forecasts.
The study also finds that prediction markets offer unique market-based distribution data for variables such as GDP growth, core inflation, unemployment rate, and non-farm employment, which previously lacked comparable market pricing tools. Since 2022, Kalshi’s predictions for Federal Reserve rate meeting outcomes have been perfectly aligned with actual results.
The report notes that a major advantage of prediction markets is the participation of retail investors, setting them apart from traditional financial markets dominated by institutions, thereby offering unique value in information aggregation and real-time reflection of market expectations.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
'Bitcoin Going to Zero' Google Searches Rise With Crypto Sentiment in the Dumps
Search interest in Bitcoin's failure is peaking, correlating with a drastic drop in crypto sentiment. Bitcoin is down 47% from its October high, facing predictions of further declines, though experts don't foresee it dropping to zero.
Decrypt5h ago
Trump says he no longer cares about the Nobel Prize; the probability of the US striking Iran before the end of February rises to 25%.
The U.S. military has deployed various air and naval forces in the Middle East, while Trump emphasizes maintaining good dialogue with Iran and hopes to reach an agreement. Prediction markets indicate that the likelihood of striking Iran is gradually increasing.
GateNewsBot9h ago
Federal Reserve's Kashkari: Waller is fully qualified to serve as Federal Reserve Chair
Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Kashkari says Waller is qualified to serve as Federal Reserve Chair and looks forward to further discussions. Although the White House officially nominated Waller, his nomination probability has dropped to 95%, while Judy Shelton's nomination probability has increased to 4-5%. Experts believe that even if Waller is not nominated, Shelton is unlikely to become a potential candidate.
GateNewsBot9h ago
Kalshi Rate Forecasts Match Fed Survey Accuracy, Analysis Finds
_Prediction market data from Kalshi shows stronger accuracy than traditional futures and survey forecasts on key macro trends._
Prediction markets are gaining ground in macro forecasting. Federal Reserve economists report that Kalshi’s rate contracts have closely mirrored U.S. monetary
LiveBTCNews11h ago
Opinion: The recent lawsuit outcome of Polymarket will determine the regulatory jurisdiction of the US prediction market.
Polymarket recently filed a lawsuit in Massachusetts, claiming that the regulatory authority over prediction markets belongs to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rather than the state government. This lawsuit could impact the regulatory framework for prediction markets in the United States, determining whether they can bypass state gambling laws or must adhere to individual state regulations.
GateNewsBot11h ago
