Polymarket breaks $478 million in daily trading record after Iran airstrike

Following the joint airstrikes by Israel and the U.S. on Iran, the blockchain-based prediction market platform Polymarket’s single-day nominal trading volume surpassed $478 million. Among these, political markets accounted for $220 million, with the largest single contract settlement reaching $90 million. However, Bubblemaps discovered that at least six addresses profited approximately $1.2 million from bets related to the Iran conflict, raising suspicions of insider trading.

$478 Million Record: Geopolitical Events Trigger Prediction Market Surge

(Source: Dune)

According to on-chain data compiled by Defioasis, the surge in Polymarket’s trading volume directly correlates with the timing of the U.S.-Iran airstrikes, demonstrating the platform’s rapid response in pricing geopolitical events—significantly faster than traditional financial markets or polling models. This record breaks multiple records: the platform’s overall trading volume hit a new high, political markets also reached a new high, and the largest single contract settlement was $90 million, reflecting a large influx of capital in a short period.

(Source: Bubblemaps)

However, Bubblemaps’ on-chain analysis found that at least six wallets collectively profited about $1.2 million from bets related to the Iran conflict, with transaction timing showing abnormal correlations with the events, sparking widespread questions from markets, legislators, and regulators about insider trading and market fairness.

Key Data Highlights of Polymarket’s Record-Breaking Event

• Single-day nominal trading volume: $478 million, a platform record
• Political market volume: $220 million, nearly 50% of total that day
• Largest single settlement: $90 million, indicating high-value capital inflow
• Suspected insider trading: At least 6 addresses, profit around $1.2 million (Bubblemaps analysis)
• Trigger event: Israel-U.S. joint airstrikes on Iran

Kalshi Controversy: Ethical Dilemma Over the Khamenei Death Proxy Market

Coinciding with Polymarket’s record trading volume, competitor Kalshi faced strong criticism over a contract titled “Will Ali Khamenei Step Down as Supreme Leader?” The contract’s total trading volume exceeded $50 million, with about $20 million traded on the day of the strike.

Critics argue that, although Kalshi explicitly prohibits profiting from death outcomes, they have effectively created a death proxy market. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour publicly responded on X, emphasizing that all positions will be settled at the last trading price before Khamenei’s death, and positions established after his death will be fully compensated, including all trading fees.

Mansour further explained that the change in Iran’s highest leader has significant implications for geopolitics, economics, and national security, giving these contracts real-world relevance. The settlement process strictly adheres to contract terms submitted to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). These incidents highlight the core challenge of how prediction markets can efficiently price geopolitical events while balancing ethical dilemmas and regulatory gray areas.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Polymarket’s trading volume hit a record high after the Iran airstrikes?

The geopolitical event of Israel and the U.S. conducting airstrikes on Iran triggered a massive influx of capital into Polymarket’s political prediction markets within a very short period, with single-day nominal trading surpassing $478 million. The platform’s rapid response to geopolitical events in pricing makes it a highly event-driven trading platform.

What exactly are the insider trading concerns related to Polymarket?

Bubblemaps’ on-chain analysis found that at least six wallets profited about $1.2 million from Iran conflict bets, with transaction timing suspiciously correlated with the events, raising questions about whether someone had access to non-public information and placed early bets.

How is Kalshi handling the controversy over the Khamenei contract?

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour explained that all positions established before Khamenei’s death will be settled at the last trading price before his death, and positions after his death will be fully compensated, including fees. He emphasized that the contracts fully comply with CFTC-approved terms and are legitimate predictions of geopolitical leadership changes, not direct bets on death outcomes.